LNP 9.9% vs ON
Incumbent MP
Pat Weir, since 2015.
Geography
Southern Queensland. Condamine covers rural areas to the west of Toowoomba, entirely contained within the Toowoomba local government area. The seat covers Oakey, Pittsworth, Clifton and some outer parts of Toowoomba.
History
The seat of Condamine was created newly at the 2009 election, taking parts of the abolished seats of Darling Downs and Cunningham. The seat of Condamine had previously existed as a seat from 1950 to 1992, and for most of that time was held by the Country Party/National Party.
The district of Cunningham existed continuously from 1888 to 2009, and was won by the Country/National Party at every election from 1920 onwards.
Tony Elliott held Cunningham for the National Party from 1974 to 2001. He served as a minister in the Bjelke-Petersen government from 1980 to 1983, and again served as an opposition frontbencher in the early 1990s.
Elliott retired in 2001, and was succeeded by fellow National Stuart Copeland. Copeland won re-election in 2004 and 2006.
The seat of Darling Downs was created in 2001, with the same name as an earlier seat that had been abolished in 1888.
In 2001, the seat was won by independent candidate Ray Hopper, who joined the National Party later the same year.
Hopper joined the opposition frontbench in 2004, and won a second and third term as Member for Darling Downs.
Both Hopper and Copeland joined the newly-merged Liberal National Party in 2008, and when their seats were abolished in the 2008 redistribution, Hopper won LNP preselection for Condamine.
Hopper and Copeland both ran for Condamine in 2009, Hopper as the LNP candidate and Copeland as an independent. Hopper won the seat with 61.6% of the two-candidate-preferred vote, with Copeland coming second. Copeland managed 25% of the primary vote.
Ray Hopper was easily re-elected in 2012, winning 58% of the primary vote and over 70% of the two-candidate-preferred vote. In November 2012, he resigned from the LNP and joined Katter’s Australian Party and became the KAP state parliamentary leader shortly afterwards.
Hopper decided to run for the seat of Nanango at the 2015 election, but was unsuccessful. The LNP’s Pat Weir won Condamine.
Weir won a second term in 2017.
Candidates
- Sean Womersley (Greens)
- Greg Priebe (One Nation)
- Pat Weir (Liberal National)
- Brendon Huybregts (Labor)
- Nui Harris (United Australia)
Assessment
Condamine is a safe LNP seat.
2017 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Pat Weir | Liberal National | 13,554 | 41.8 | -10.4 |
| Frank Ashman | One Nation | 7,709 | 23.8 | +23.8 |
| Brendon Huybregts | Labor | 5,848 | 18.0 | -2.7 |
| John Hill | Katter’s Australian Party | 3,694 | 11.4 | -4.0 |
| Chris Turnbull | Greens | 1,616 | 5.0 | +1.1 |
| Informal | 1,117 | 3.3 |
2017 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Pat Weir | Liberal National | 19,421 | 59.9 | -6.4 |
| Frank Ashman | One Nation | 13,000 | 40.1 | +39.3 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Condamine have been divided into four areas. Polling places on the outskirts of Toowoomba were grouped together, and the remainder of the seat was split into central, north and south.
The LNP won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote (against One Nation) in all four areas, ranging from 54.4% in the centre to 61.8% on the outskirts of Toowoomba.
Labor came third, with a primary vote ranging from 15% in the south to 20.8% on the outskirts of Toowoomba.
| Voter group | ALP prim | LNP 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Toowoomba Outskirts | 20.8 | 61.8 | 8,492 | 26.2 |
| Central | 19.0 | 54.4 | 7,133 | 22.0 |
| North | 16.0 | 60.0 | 2,723 | 8.4 |
| South | 15.0 | 61.3 | 2,139 | 6.6 |
| Pre-poll | 17.5 | 61.2 | 4,600 | 14.2 |
| Other votes | 15.9 | 61.8 | 7,334 | 22.6 |
Election results in Condamine at the 2017 QLD state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (LNP vs One Nation) and Labor primary votes.
ALP not having a candidate here selected yet says it all with this seat, and with KAP more focused on Warrego, it definitely is a LNP vs ONP seat. With KAP out of this one, I can see those votes more staying with ONP but just don’t see them getting over the line, although, who knows what could happen with ALP votes now because of CPV.
Prediction (August 2020): LNP Retain
Ben, update for the geography: Condamine’s now completely in Toowoomba LGA. It lost Dalby last redistribution.
Driving around Condamine today the only sign that an election was taking place was a couple of Bill boards with the name of LNP MLA Pat Weir on them. These may even be permanent fixtures. Possibly even coming out of MP’s allowances. One sign up near Crows Nest and other on Western approaches to Toowoomba.
Still no ALP candidate listed on their website and no Green either. UAP has also thrown its hat in the ring. Based on info from AJ, this could seriously see Condamine become a really safe LNP seat, with still a 2CP to ONP but a bigger margin. Nothing really to see here then.
Prediction (September 2020): LNP Retain [No Change]
Prediction: LNP Retain
LNP retain
lnp keep